Medical School Acceptance Probability Calculator
The Medical School Acceptance Probability Calculator estimates your likelihood of acceptance to U.S. MD programs using your MCAT score and GPA. This tool helps pre-med students gauge competitiveness and make informed decisions about application strategy. Whether you are evaluating your current stats or planning a retake, this tool provides data-driven insights based on AAMC historical data.
How Acceptance Probability Is Calculated
This calculator uses historical data published by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), specifically the MCAT and GPA grid for accepted applicants. Because the AAMC publishes data in bands (e.g., GPA 3.60–3.79) and actual scores are continuous, we use a statistical method called bilinear interpolation to estimate the precise probability between those data points.
P_final = P(x,y) × Adjustment
Where:
- P(x,y) = Probability derived from bilinear interpolation of GPA (y) and MCAT (x) on the AAMC grid.
- Adjustment = 0.90 for Reapplicants, 1.0 for First-Time Applicants.
This method provides a statistically sound estimate that smooths out the "stepped" nature of the raw grid data, offering a more accurate reflection of how admissions committees view continuous metrics.
What Your Acceptance Probability Means
Understanding your probability helps you create a realistic school list. It highlights whether you are a competitive candidate for top-tier institutions or if you should focus on strengthening your application.
Low Competitiveness (<30%)
Your stats are below the median for most schools. Consider retaking the MCAT or improving your GPA. Focus on building a strong "reach" list and strengthening post-bacc work.
Moderate Competitiveness (30–60%)
You are in the range for many schools but are not guaranteed admission. Broaden your list to include more target schools, and ensure your personal statement and extracurriculars are excellent.
High Competitiveness (60–80%)
You are a solid candidate for a large number of MD programs. You should feel comfortable applying to competitive mid-tier schools while carefully selecting a few top-tier reaches.
Very High Competitiveness (>80%)
Your metrics are excellent. You are likely to receive multiple acceptances. Focus on interviewing well and finding the best cultural fit rather than worrying about getting in.
Important Limitation
This tool analyzes only quantitative metrics (GPA/MCAT). Admissions decisions are holistic and depend heavily on qualitative factors like clinical experience, research, letters of recommendation, and interviews.
Disclaimer: This calculator is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee admission or rejection. Consult with pre-health advisors for personalized guidance. Data is approximated from AAMC historical tables.
Calculation logic verified using publicly available standards.
View our Accuracy & Reliability Framework →